Even though Fred Thompson hasn’t officially declared his candidacy for the 2008 presidential election, he has pulled ahead of Rudy Guiliani in the latest poll.

Poll Trends
Posted Jun 19th 2007 6:52AM by NixGuy

Rasmussen’s latest is out today and shows that Fred Thompson is the new frontrunner at 28% to Rudy Giuliani’s 27% with Mitt Romney and John McCain crashing back down to 10%. It is the first time that Giuliani has relinquished the lead since January. Just think what will happen when Fred actually announces.

Yesterday, Gallup and the big board at pollster.com showed the same trends, Giuliani and McCain sinking, Fred rising, and the other contenders becoming irrelevant. While things are relatively static on the Democratic side, Fred’s impending entry is generating a lot of excitement among the press corp about the GOP primary race.

My prediction is that this will rapidly become a two-person race centered around two issues, electability and ideology. Giuliani is electable, but will he be conservative enough? Bush’s current warpath for immigration reform comes at an unlucky time for Giuliani. It’s reminding conservative voters of what happens when they vote for a non-conservative for the highest office. All things considered, they’d rather have a candidate who is a conservative at heart rather than someone they made a deal with.

With Fred Thompson it’s the opposite problem. Most Republicans believe that he is a conservative at heart, based on past voting history and ACU Rating. But his current meteoric rise in the polls is only partially based on that. The other large part is the perception that he is a great communicator who would be an excellent foil against Hillary Clinton or whoever it is that the Democrats nominate. The perception is also that he will be able to reach out to swing voters as well and pull them back from the Democrats. I happen to believe this myself, but whether you believe it or not, understand that this perception among Republicans is what is moving Fred Thompson to the top.

McCain is out. Has been for awhile. It just happened to be immigration that was the final straw. Romney still has a chance but he’s currently functioning as the first alternate in a two person race. If either Giuliani or Thompson stumble or fall short, Romney will be there waiting. Short of that, he remains on the sidelines.

In 1999, George W. Bush took the lead in money, polling and never relinquished it. This cycle will be much more interesting and overall good for Republicans.

I admit - I really like everything I’ve read and heard so far about Fred Thompson. I think he just might be the person who can unite the Republican party and defeat Hillary.

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